Invitation to a Hydrology forum

Welcome to a conversation on the hydrology of the Amboseli ecosystem. The hydrology of the ecosystem is driven primarily by rainfall events on the Kilimanjaro catchment. The objective of this interactive forum is to stimulate scientific interest in conducting a retrospective and predictive study on what controls the delivery of sub-surface water to the ecosystem.
The image above shows 'Lake Leakey' in the heart of Amboseli National Park in January 2001, after the exceptional rains of Novermber and December, 2006 (see the chart in Cynthia Moss' posting on the current drought). By mid-2007, the lake, and the 5000-odd flamingos and other waterbirds it attracted were entirely gone.
The middle chart shows water the table level as measured from a ground-level datum at Amboseli Lodge collected by AERP staff (Amboseli Lodge and Ol Tukai Lodge track near perfectly, r = 0.94, with OT being about 0.5 m higher, as you might expect since it sits closer to the swamp edge). There seems to be some relationship, but it's weak (r = 0.49). Have tried various lags and cumulatives: gets worse. Should do the same with precip on the mountain...
The chart on the right underlines the weakness of the relation between that the watertable level and rainfall in the basin (the slope is negative, since the measurement as taken from the edge of the well to the water level, therefore the smaller the measurement, the higher the water level). Clearly the watertable is driven by unknown processes elsewhere, probably on Kilimanjaro as well as underground in a tremor-rich area (see the brief report on recent tremors).
Apart from a some informal expert opinions on the links between the Kilimanjaro catchment and the Amboseli ground water, nothing is really known about the functioning of Amboseli hydrology. We have often joked among ourselves that for a young hydrologist, the Kilimanjaro-Amboseli hydrology would be a PdD subject to die for.
The Amboseli Trust for Elephants invites interested scientists to join a forum, perhaps leading to a collaborative research effort, on the hydrology of northern Kilimanjaro and the Amboseli ecosystem. There are two overarching questions:
- How does water get to the Amboseli swamp system today?
- What is the prognosis for the future?
Please have a look at the accociated comments, which are a compilation of exchanges we have had to date, and see if you are interested.
We look forward to your participation.
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